I have decided to shy away from all of the Superbowl hype leading up to the game over the last two weeks because, let’s face it, everyone knows Payton Manning and Drew Brees are great quarterbacks, everyone knows the potential loss of Dwight Freeney does not help Indy’s cause, and everyone knows most of the talk leading up the Superbowl has little impact on the actual game. That being said, we have reached the eve of Superbowl XLIV, and it is time for FPP to predict a winner.
The case for the Colts…
Indianapolis enters the game as favourites, and that is not surprising considering they appear to be the most complete team in the playoffs. The Colts offense is one of the best in the league, and they proved that with a superb performance in the AFC Championship game. Their defense, although struggling to stop the Jets early, has also looked very good in this season’s playoffs. However, the Saints offer the biggest challenge to date, and the Colts will have to be on top of their game both offensively and defensively if they are going to emerge as World Champions.
The Colts are going to have to protect Payton Manning. New Orleans defensive coordinator Greg Williams has told anyone who would listen over the past two weeks that his defense will bring pressure and hit Manning. He even went as far as saying he would be willing to accept 15-yard roughing the passer penalties just to see Manning hit. Indianapolis is going to have to make the proper pre-snap reads to decipher the coverage and know where the pressure is coming, so their offensive line, tight ends, and running backs can pick up the blitz, and give Manning enough time to throw the ball. The good news for Indianapolis is that this what Payton Manning does best. Manning is a pro when it comes to making the right pre-snap reads, and then adjusting the protection to counter the defenses pressure. If the Colts are able to keep Manning on his feet, it should be a good day for the offense who have the weapons at receiver to really hurt the Saints. It will be vital for Indy’s offense to have a successful day because teams usually have to put a lot of points on the board in order to beat New Orleans.
The Colts defense is in for their biggest test of the post-season. Indianapolis’ first playoff game was against an injured Joe Flacco, which allowed the Colts to focus on shutting down Baltimore’s running attack. Stopping the run was once again the theme for the Colts defense in the AFC Championship, and they were very successful against the hard running Jets. However, their secondary was exposed early by New York, and one has to wonder if the Colts have what it takes to stop a very dynamic Saints offense. New Orleans boasts one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, but they are also very capable at running the ball, which prevents Indianapolis from focusing on just one aspect of New Orleans attack. This may sound overly simplistic, but Indianapolis is really going to have to tackle well on defense. New Orleans led the league in yards after the catch this season, and have a number of offensive players who can turn 4-yard passes into 80-yard touchdowns. Wrapping up on initial contact will force the Saints into some third down situations, which will give the Colts defense a chance to force New Orleans to punt. Indy’s defense is known for their speed, and that will be put to the test on Sunday, and their ability to not only keep up with the New Orleans receivers, but also bring them down will have a huge impact on Sunday’s outcome.
A case for the Saints…
It has been an outstanding season for the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees and company flirted with perfection starting the season 13-0, but then dropped their final three games of the regular season, which had a number of people wondering if this team had peaked too soon. The Saints have answered that question with a perfect 2-0 playoff record, and their first trip to the Superbowl in franchise history. New Orleans squeaked out a victory in a classic NFC Championship game two weeks ago, but the competition will be even tougher on Sunday.
In order for New Orleans to win this game, Drew Brees will have to put in an MVP performance. Brees struggled against the Vikings in the NFC Championship. The very cool quarterback appeared nervous on the big stage, and he did not throw the ball with the same velocity he has become known for. The Saints were able to overcome Brees’ struggles against Minnesota, but they will need Brees at his best in order to beat the Colts. I have already mentioned that the Saints led the league in yards after catch this season, which means the quarterback is throwing the ball in front of his receivers, so they can catch the ball in full stride. The timing was clearly off against the Vikings with a number of passes being thrown behind receivers, but the Saints have caught a break thanks to Freeney’s injury, which could slow down the Colts pass-rush, and allow Brees more time to set-up and step into his throws. New Orleans is going to have to score a lot of points to win this game, and that will require the offense to be in perfect rhythm, and Drew Brees will have to be at the top of his game.
It is a tall order to ask the New Orleans’ defense to shut down the high powered Colts offense, and one has to wonder if this “bend but don’t break” group can cope with the Colts talent on offense. The Saints have depended on the turnover all season to get things done. New Orleans gives up a lot of yards, but manage to force the crucial turnover when it matters most. However, the Colts are known for perfection and never making the mistakes that will cost them the game. Indianapolis is also known for making the proper reads to pick up the blitz, and then exposing the weak spot on the defense. Basically, the Colts are known for stopping what the Saints do best on defense, so it will be up to Greg Williams to create a perfect game-plan. A lot has been made the past two weeks about the Saints defense hammering opposition quarterbacks whenever they get the chance, but it will be vital for the Saints to mix their blitzes with some nice coverage packages. The Jets were able to pressure Manning early in the AFC Championship, but once Manning and the Colts offensive line figured out the looks, the Colts were able to move the ball with relative ease for the remainder of that contest. The Saints cannot rely solely on pressuring Payton Manning, because he is the best at getting rid of the ball before the pressure gets to him, which places immence pressure on the opposition’s secondary. The Saints cannot have their corners playing one-on-one with Wayne and Garcon all game, because those mis-matches will lead to touchdowns. Trying to keep Payton Manning off balance is not an easy thing to do, but it is the only way to try and stop this high powered offense.
Prediction time…
The Saints will get a great game from Brees and the offense, but it will not be enough to beat Manning and the Colts. I expect both offenses to be at their best, and this game has the potential to become an instant Superbowl classic, Indianapolis will be able to handle the Saints pressure, and will come out on top in a close game. It has been an outstanding turnaround and great season for the Saints, but I feel it will end on a sour note Sunday night in Miami.