The concept of winning and losing a trade has reached a fever pitch this week as a result of the trade between the Maple Leafs and Flames. The reviews are in after the first game, and many people in Toronto have decided the trade was won in landslide, and it is now time to start planning the parade. Now it may have been a great debut for the newest members of the Maple Leafs, but it is only one game, and it would be wise for Leaf fans to temper their enthusiasm a tad. Burke is putting some nice pieces together, but there is still a long way to go before this team is truly ready to contend. With so much focus being placed on this most recent trade, I feel it is time to re-visit an earlier trade made by Burke to acquire Phil Kessel.
The warning signs were out there when Maple Leaf’s GM Brian Burke traded two first-round drafts and a second-rounder to Boston for Phil Kessel. Most people pointed out that the Leafs had too many question marks, and that trading this season’s first round pick was far too risky a move because it would likely become a lottery pick for the Bruins. Everyone who follows hockey knows that the warning signs have in fact come to fruition.
Phil Kessel joined the Leafs in November after recovering from a shoulder injury, and made an immediate impact on the Leafs line-up. Kessel stormed out of the gate scoring 10 goals in his first 12 games with the club, and Toronto actually propelled up the standings coming within four points of the eighth and final playoff spot. However, Kessel’s play quickly swooned and the Leafs took a subsequent nose dive back down the standings, and now sit third from the bottom in the entire NHL. If the Leafs are unable to make a run in the final months of the season, the Bruins will in fact have a lottery pick. Most are hailing this as a great trade for the Bruins who should come away with a talented prospect.
However, the 2009-10 season has not exactly been as advertised for the Boston Bruins. Boston has been mired in their own tailspin in the last month, and now sit twelfth in the Eastern Conference. The Bruins were supposed to be a Stanley Cup contender this season, and now they find themselves in jepardy of missing the playoffs. Many people are wondering if the Bruins need a coaching change, others are pointing out that Tim Thomas is not playing at same level this season as he did last, but the problems in Boston are actually quite clear; the Bruins are not scoring goals. Boston sits dead last in the NHL in team scoring averaging 2.31 goals per game after finishing last season with the second most goals scored.
There are a number of Bruins who are struggling to produce the type numbers they put up a season ago, but trading your top goal scorer and only receiving draft picks in return is clearly not helping the current situation. The Bruins tried to sell this trade as an upgrade, and pointed to Kessel’s defensive troubles and suspect work ethic as a reason he had to be shipped out, but mismanaging the salary cap is the real reason Kessel had to be traded. Boston locked up some of their other young talent, overpaid for Michael Ryder, and the signing of Derrick Morris has not had the desired effect. One could easily argue that the money would have been better spent on re-signing Kessel, who is a pure goal scorer in this league, who should consistently score 40 goals a season for a number of years to come.
When looking back on this trade, it appears to me that both teams may have lost. Toronto is still trying to rebuild their team, and the best way to do that is through the draft. The Leafs have very few draft picks in order to re-stock the cupboard. Making trades and signing free agents works for a while, but it is a very costly approach in the new salary cap era. Many teams have gone from the bottom to the top in the last few years, but almost all of them did it through the draft. The Boston Bruins were the best team in the NHL last season, and appeared to be ready to take an even bigger step forward this season. Negotiations with Phil Kessel then began to drag on, and soon it was apparent that Boston was going to trade their top scorer. Having a potential lottery pick is not the worst situation to be in, but this team is built to contend, and the window for winning usually does not remain open for very long. It is doubtful the Bruins would find themselves twelfth in the Eastern Conference if Kessel’s goal scoring ability was still apart of the line-up. Neither team is currently coming close to the expectations they had entering the season, which is causing concern for fans of both organizations.
Did you think its too early to assess this, or any other recent trades, let alone RE-evaluate the trade? The Leafs are looking to re-build for the future and the club is concerned with the long term. So although this season has been prety sad, the real impact of the trade(s) lies in the future – how the deals work out long term. Of course the Leafs have the psot season as a goal, but arent thinking just that short term.
With respect to Kessel, I dont think anyone expected him to be a quick fix. Toronto needs more than his scoring touch alone to have a winning club. Moreover, you can’t expect much from him unless he’s got quality people around him, and Stajan wasn’t that guy. Yeah he’s struggled recently, but he is a young player with lots of potential, who’s expected to be a part of the team for years to come, and we just dont know what the future holds for the Leafs. And of course, two frist round draft picks is a high price, especially going to a rival team. But there is always uncertainty with drafting players. There have been lots of guys drafted early on who just never produced as expected.
So although the immediate future is a little bleak, we need to keep the bigger picture in perspective. So in all, I question whether its fair to really assess this trade until we see just how Kessel develops on the team or just how the draft picks pan out for Boston. I dont think we will have a clear idea of the impact of this trade, and the one’s made Sunday, for a couple of seasons. The trades on Sunday will only be deemed a success if the Monster can learn and develop under JSG, or if Phaneuf can capture that spark he had out of the gate and if he develops how people expect him to. As far as the Leafs are concerned, I’m holding off on weighing in over whether these trades made them winners or losers, because we just dont know.
I understand the Kessel trade from the Leafs perspective. The guy is a proven scorer in this league, and should remain one for the rest of his career, but I just feel they morgaged too much of the future in order to obtain him.
The reason I raised the point of the Kessel trade is due to the fact that the Leafs have been beaten up for trading a potential first overall pick, but I really think Boston has been given a free ride over this trade. Everyone is going on about how good this trade is from Boston’s perspective because they are a good team that is going to get a high pick, but Boston has not actually been very good. They were good with Kessel but are clearly missing his goals. Kessel can be a gamebreaker, but you are right Mike, he does need to have the right players around him. However, finding established players through trades and free-agency is an expensive appraoch to rebuilding your team, while drafting quality players allow a team to manage their cap a little easier.
I also do not agree with the rush to judge the winners and losers of trades. It was a bit ridiculous to see the Leafs declared huge winners of the trade with Calgary based on the fact that they won their first games since the trade, and Calgary lost their first game. I actually like the Flames/Leafs trade for both teams.
I agree that they put a lot on the line and agree that in this day and age drafting is the key to building a team. I am apprehensive about giving up two first rounders as well. I just wanted to make the point that we shouldnt rush out to judge too quickly on deals that are not rental deals.
But after a game like last night it just pains me to think about the future of this team without a solid stock of drafts. Im getting to the end of my rope. There is only so much a fan can endure. Burke says this team is built from the net out, that his style is to build a strong defence. But look at the games this year. They let in way too many goals. Scoring isnt the issue. They can score 3 or 4 goals in a game, but when you are letting 5 or 6 get past you its jsut impossible for these young guys to score enough to win. Their defence has been too painful to watch. Something has to give. I am starting to question the ability of Wilson to inspire his team.